02/18/09

FRESHMEN SIRES AT OBS

   Buyers seemed to like VALUE PLUS.PURGE and CONSOLIDATOR.  All three had impressive representatives in the breeze show.  VALUE PLUS could be the next SONGANDAPRAYER, and should be a commercial hit if they run reasonably well early.  He needs sound mares...... PURGE, looks to be another son of PULPIT with a future.  CONSOLIDATOR is a horse that we had not put much stock in but they looked very fast on the track, stay tuned.

 02/10/09

 WHO'S HOT?

TAPIT  and MEDAGLIA D'ORO continue to build on their impressive starts with some good winners and stakes horses.  Their  3 year-olds should only get better as they stretch out.  CANDY RIDE ( see our last newsletter) is on a torrid pace and I love his offspring for their two turn ability.  He has a good number of repeat winners and stakes horses.   Also, Sikura's A P INDY  stud  INDYGO SHINER had two impressive winners in Dubai.  He is a great value at $7500.  FRIENDS LAKE still looks solid, and SEATTLE FITZ,  a horse whose 2 year- olds sold sensationally, has had a few impressive runners lately, inlcuding Fitz Just Right and Fitzaslew.  The ones we have seen can really run, but they look slow to come around. In California, his son Fitzmo threw in a clunker in his return, but his form and figs stamp him as a stakes performer down the road.  He has defeated San Rafael winner The Pamplemousse and Hollywood Futurity second place finisher  (by a nose)  I Want Revenge.   Pioneer of the Nile should be better on grass and will come into the Derby with not enough rest if Baffert follows the current game plan.  Rail Trip is the best colt I have seen this year.....

VALUE STALLIONS FOR 09

BIRDSTONE $10K--- Getting a good percentage of winners and quality stakes horses.  Has terrific upside, and they appear to be very sound.

PURE PRIZE $12,500--- Very solid and consistent though often overlooked.  Capable of getting the big stakes horse like Pure Clan. 

CANDY RIDE  $12,500 ---  Another South American horse who is meshing well genetically with American mares.  This horse has been extremely well managed and has a handful of good stakes horses with more on the way.

REPENT $7,500---   A talking horse who has improved his mares tremendously and should appeal to anyone who wants to breed to a stallion in this range.  I have always been a fan of his grandsire, Sovereign Dancer.

MILWAUKEE BREW $7,500--  Gets big two turn horses with substance and scope.  Consistent and sound.  Hard to find a good proven horse in this price range.  I think he will only get better.

E DUBAI  $15K--- Overshadowed by stablemate STREET CRY,   but professional and versatile..Gets his share of graded stakes horses and moves his mares up considerably.  Would like to see more of these go to Europe.

 IF YOU BREED TO RACE...

 Consider the  following studs:

 1) Inditab, Shadwell, KY  $5K

      From a few small crops to race has 20% stakes horses. A son of Phone Trick out of a Mr. Prospector mare.   Average eanings per runner is $74K. He is a very appealing option for those looking for sound quality runners at an affordable fee.

2) Slew City Slew Airdrie Stud, KY  $5K

      Has great numbers for a stallion in the price range.  A good choice if you are looking to inbreed to In Reality. 

3) Put It Back, Bridlewood, FL  $8

,500

     Solid and consistent, he has done well from limited opportunities.  Gets speedy, high class sprinters. 

4) Pioneering, Overbrook, KY $5K

      A son of Mr. Prospector who consistently gets top performers and  gets 13% stakes performers from foals. A half brother to Storm Cat.

STALLIONS ON THE FAST TRACK
Among the young stallions who appear to be on the fast track based on yearling and 2 year old sales are Speightstown (not surprisingly), and Congaree, a bit of a Dark Horse. The latter was a very sound and durable performer from the under represented Blushing Groom sire line. Speightstown has certainly been well marketed and supported by the Taylor Made crowd. Both sires will merit respect if their 2 year olds come out running later in the year, although neither was very precocious in their careers. Speightstown's soundness issues merit a wait and see approach from this corner......

REPENT AND OTHER REASONS TO WONDER...
Perhaps one of the reasons for the success of REPENT is his South American female family. Look for a number of these younger studs from South American female families to make the grade. FRIEND'S LAKE, CANDY RIDE and also INVASOR offer some interesting options for our predominantly inbred mare population.

BEST STALLIONS AT $25K-$40K
Successful Appeal heads this list, because, as previously noted, I believe he is a genetic superstar in the making. I also like Malibu Moon whose commercial appeal is catching up to his race track success. He has done it the hard way with lackluster mares and starting off in MD. Stormy Atlantic started in FL for $2500 and is now on a moon shot at Hill'nDale where he stands for $45K. He is another who has earned his stripes. In the $25K-$30K range, two who are proving to be good value are Exchange Rate and Broken Vow. Both are getting the job done, and could easily be standing for $75K in the not too distant future.

STUDS ON THE BUBBLE......
Include Aldebaran, who so far has failed to live up to the hype. Whywhywhy has also failed to generate a significant number of quality winners or stakes horses: other than the Breeders' Cup Juenile Turf Winner, he has little to show to date. And remember, Whywhywhy was a very quick New York stakes winning 2-year old and they averaged $79K as yearlings off a $5K stud fee.

FIRST CROP 3 YEAR OLD SIRES
Flatter and Sunday Break are off to good starts with 18 and 22 winners respectfully. Both have several promising stakes horses and are a great buy at $5K and $7500. Walmac also offers a significant discount if you are registering the Sunday Break yearling in a state bred program.

KEENELAND JANUARY SALES VIEW
The clear message from the breeding stock sales in November and now again in January is you should be upgrading the quality of your broodmares and culling any mares that you have to make excuses for when selling their yearlings. The percentage of profitable yearlings is likely to continue to spiral down given the rise in stud fees. Two key points: 1) find a a stud that offers great value and is hopefully proven, 2) make sure you like the mating enough to keep the yearling and race it, as that may be your only option.

OUTCROSS STALLIONS
With so many mares bred on the Northern Dancer/Mr. Prospector cross, and so many current studs having the same genetic components, breeders would be well advised to look at some out cross studs. Include at Airdrie for ($35K) is a son of Broad Brush, with great bone and scope, and is off to a great start with several Group 1 performers. Also, two sons of Sunday Silence , Hat Trick ($15K)and Silent Name ($7500) are wonderful options. A quick study of the progeny reports of Sunday Silence and his many sons will give you a great road map on what will work with these two.

YOUNG SIRES WITH STRONG UPSIDE
Consider two Airdrie Studs, Proud Citizen and Harlan's Holiday. Both have first crop 3 year olds in 08, and are off to a great start with a high percentage of winners and some quality stakes horses. Both are priced at $25K, which in the current market is a good value. The best value at $25K is Exchange Rate, who had an extraordinary year with Ermine, Xchanger and a host of others. He sports a gaudy 4.29 Apex rating, and is now in a great location at Three Chimneys.