5//07/09

Racing got a much needed boost from the Borel/MINE THAT BIRD  victory.  Cinderella stories are great, and the winner showed tremendous improvement.  His effort was no fluke and he ran a figure good enough to win most years.  RACHEL ALEXANDRA  did not beat much, but was awesome in the Oaks.  If MEDAGLIA d'ORO  can come with a few colt stakes winners it will cement his reputation as the rising star in the stud ranks.  BIRDSTONE   did not get much respect prior to the Derby, but we have been high on him for some time.  He got off to a solid start last year, and he continues to get sound quality horses. 

 4/28.09

SQUARE EDDY and QUALITY ROAD are now out and  FRIESAN FIRE looms as one of the likely favorites after working in 57 and change.  Best horse on the grounds without a doubt is RACHEL ALEXANDRA.  Look for her connections to point her towards the Belmont if she wins the Oaks as impressively as anticipated.  This Derby will be an exotic bettors dream with several live long shots, including MUSKET MAN, DESERT PARTY, HOLD  ME BACK, WIN WILLY,WEST SIDE BERNIE et alia.   I will take a position against PIONEER and REVENGE, and look for a potential big payoff in the exotics.

 4/07/09

QUALITY ROAD now may be sidelined with a quarter crack.  I WANT REVENGE  has become a monster on dirt and  after  a troubled trip in the Wood and is now the favorite pending OLD FASHIONED's performance in Hot Springs.   I would want someone other than Talamo riding a Derby favorite.  MUSKET MAN is coming into the Derby nicely after a sharp performance in Chicago.  How could Keeneland bettors let HOOH WHY go off at 24-1 in the Ashland?  She should have been 5-1.  Iavorone must regret not buying her for $400K. STARDOM BOUND has never raced on dirt and taking the overland route  (as she always does) is often problematic.  SB does not look to have improved much from 2 to 3, or at least not yet.  POSSE had the Carter winner in KODIAK COWBOY  and now is the year to breed to him as he has some big crops coming up and he is proven, available and reasonable.  I am still trying to figure out how Pletcher got 1-5 AFFIRMATV  beat in an allowance turfer at Keeneland.  The colt  is so impressve physically and on the track that he can be intimidating.  CANDY RIDE's next stakes horse will be TICFAW  4/25 on the grass at Lone Star.

3/01/09

   MIDSHIPMAN  is out and never figured in my Derby scenario anyway.  PAMPLEMOUSSE ran lights out in the Sham at Santa Anita, but I am still not a believer. He has yet to beat a tough field.  Can he go a a mile and a quarter?  Can he win on dirt?  I say no.  QUALITY ROAD was impressive  in the Fountain of Youth  in just his third start. He has run some awesome figs for a young horse.    Here's hoping IEAH people keep STARDOM BOUND  in the  Oaks,   as the Derby will be a cavalry chage.  

2/22/09

After DUNKIRK'S impressive allowance win at Gulfstream last week, it could be an UNBRIDLED SONG Derby exacta.  A  $3.2M yearling out  of the top A P INDY mare SECRET STATUS, DUNKIRK gives Pletcher a chance to erase his awful record in  the Derby.  The big colt still has much to learn, but has eye popping talent.  MEDAGLIA D'ORO'S  RACHEL ALEXANDRA  was awesome at Oaklawn, and her next stop is the Fair Grounds Oaks. 

2/18.09

OLD FASHIONED came through with a very professional debut in the Southwest and looks sure to improve off that effort.  Larry Jones should be able to keep him on the track for Louisville.  Among the beaten field, FLAT OUT looks like a horse that could mature into a factor as the races stretch out.  His running style  usually translates into ground loss and he needs a fast pace to run at.  He is several lengths off the top horses and needs experience.

       SEATTLE FITZ  got a much needed boost when FITZ JUST RIGHT took a restricted stake in the OBS Championship series.  She set a NTR and ran faster than the colts.   EVITA ARGENTINA,  another impressive CANDY RIDE, beat colts in the San Vicente.  ELUSIVE QUALITY'S ROYAL MICHELLE   won the Barbara Fritchie and has  moved way up since switching to dirt from poly.  

2/15/09

SKY MESA, who was given up for dead a  year ago,  had a big weekend and continues to crank out graded stakes winners at a high rate . His colt, GENERAL QUARTERS, inserted himself  squarely into the Derby picture with a big win in the Sam F.Davis, a prep for the upcoming  Tampa Derby. I wonder if IEAH has any money left in the checking account  to buy this one? Will Iavorone invite  Barry Irwin as his guest to the Derby? Maybe not.  Don't call Donato Lanni  looking  for seasons to CANDY RIDE, he is book full and now has the El Camino winner in CHOCOLATE CANDY.  The Hill'n'Dale  sire is my 'I told you so'  sire for this year .....  Many forgot what a brilliant race horse this guy was.

SMARTY JONES had a nice winner at Gulfstream, but most everyone has jumped off that bandwagon.  I am more optimistic about the chances of AFLEET ALEX, whose athleticism and heart were extraordinary.   The best thing about NORTHERN AFLEET is that he is out of a NUREYEV mare. 

2/13/09

DERBY WATCH

I have been reading and listening to most of the handicapping pundits, and as usual most of them are pretty clueless heading into the Derby prep season.  If Andy Beyer is such a great handicapper, how is it that he has such an embarrassing record selecting Derby winners?  Most handicappers are on the  PIONEER OF THE NILE bandwagon, and I love the horse, but I think he is better on turf than poly, and better on poly than dirt.  Santa Anita and Churchill Downs are completely different race tracks.  How many  times has an impressive California 3 year old imploded at Churchill?  Anyone remember COLONEL JOHN?

     OLD FASHIONED is my leading contender at the moment, and Larry Jones usually does a great job all the way around.   I see MIDSHIPMAN and VINEYARD HAVEN as scratch throughs.  Frankel has to be checking daily to see how much interest his $12M  is earning. Until one of these horses training in Dubai wins, I am a non believer in this route to the Derby.  DESERT PARTY was impressive in the Guineas.  Whose idea was it to run JOSE ADAN on the grass? He was among the best physicals I saw last year, and he was bred on a blue collar budget.  Anyone ever heard of CRYPTO STAR?

        A  few horses that are below the radar that we see as having big potential upside and might have a say in big races later in the year are  FLAT OUT, an improving FLATTER colt who looked great at Oaklawn,  GIANT OAK, BREAKWATER EDISON and PATENA have all shown talent and should get the trip.  MR FANTASY   is an impressive  E DUBAI  half brother to the amazing TIN CUP CHALICE.   He should run well in the Gotham.

12/22/2008

 EMPIRE MAKER'S TOP COLT, PIONEER OF THE NILE,  was a game winner of the Cash Call Futurity yesterday.  The figs say he is better on grass, and I have noticed that Empire Maker's offspring are slow to develop.....it takes a while for the light switch to go on.  This colt has a bright future, but I would rather see him back east with Mott, a much better horseman than Baffert.   I am not yet a fan of MIdshipman, and the Derby picture will need some time to come into focus.  

JUMP START'S   3 year- old gelding , RAIL TRIP, is one of the most impressive prospects out there as we speak.   He has a ton of talent and class, and looks like a gifted two turn horse.   He appears capable of great things next year.  His sire, hot and cold, looks to be solidly on the the upswing.  The Bollinger Bands  say buy.

    LARAGH'S  Grade 1 win confirms her consistency and the promise of TAPIT.  Gainesway was struggling to fill his book at $10K this Spring......no more.

 From the Archives............       

KENTUCKY HOT BROWN 

The Florida Derby was over when the gates opened and the Boundary colt Big Brown made the lead from the 12 hole. He has speed, great stride and a competitive attitude   The big question is will he bounce in the Derby?  I think not.  Big Brown is a superstar in the making if he stays healthy.

Elysium Fields clearly bounced off his last race a TG #1. He is certainly the most intriguing stallion prospect in this group and you can look for some big races from him later in the year as he matures.  He has a great classic and grass pedigree and a savvy trainer in Barclay Tagg. 

MARCH 27 

The Florida Derby should help sort out a number of Derby Hopefuls. At this juncture, I view Big Brown as a Curlin type phenom. He has awesome talent and a good team behind him. I also like the long term prospects of Elysium Fields. He has the pedigree and the running style to make an impact in the Classics. Denis of Cork also appears to have the right stuff; a Harlan's Holiday out of an Unbridled mare, he should get the trip. In any event, I will have another update after the weekend's big races.